Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -2.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | VAN +115 UAB -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +8 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -0.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-31.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -0.2 (-8.2) | 153.0 (-27.0) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -1.1 (-9.1) | 152.8 (-26.8) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UAB -0.1 (-7.9) | 153.8 (-27.8) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -0.6 (-8.6) | 151.7 (-25.7) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-6 |
| Home | 14-6 | 17-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 80.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 7.0 (#83) | 10.3 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#44) | 1.81 (#43) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#57) | 2.21 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#38) | 0.566 (#54) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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