Betting Lines
| Spread | SUU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | EKU +188 SUU -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +2 | 214 | Won |
| Massey | SUU -4.2 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.4 (+57.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SUU -1.6 (+3.6) | 157.0 (+57.0) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SUU -2.6 (+4.6) | 155.5 (+58.5) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SUU -1.6 (+3.6) | 154.5 (+59.5) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SUU -1.7 (+3.7) | 154.6 (+59.4) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 77.1 |
| Massey | 0.1 (#170) | 4.2 (#106) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#118) | 1.00 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#140) | 0.95 (#106) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#90) | 0.545 (#85) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | SUU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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