Betting Lines
| Spread | CLT -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | MILW +210 CLT -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MILW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +11 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | CLT -7.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CLT -6.3 (-4.7) | 141.9 (-0.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CLT -6.7 (-4.3) | 140.8 (+0.2) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CLT -5.5 (-5.5) | 141.4 (-0.4) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CLT -5.5 (-5.5) | 142.5 (-1.5) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MILW | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 22-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 9-11 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 62.6 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#226) | 3.9 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#164) | 0.56 (#123) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#177) | 0.77 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.527 (#115) | 0.503 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MILW | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 22.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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