Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | RAD +260 SJSU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +10 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -4.9 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -4.2 (+14.2) | 128.9 (-4.9) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -4.6 (+14.6) | 126.4 (-2.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -5.1 (+15.1) | 129.8 (-5.8) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -5.4 (+15.4) | 129.3 (-5.3) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-3 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-10 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 66.2 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#170) | 4.8 (#97) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#191) | 1.31 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#192) | 1.45 (#79) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#153) | 0.544 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 13.3% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 75.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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