Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | EKU +275 INST -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +1 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | INST -6.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -3.7 (+4.7) | 150.9 (+26.1) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -4.3 (+5.3) | 151.0 (+26.0) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -4.6 (+5.6) | 149.5 (+27.5) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -4.6 (+5.6) | 149.5 (+27.5) | 31% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#172) | 5.9 (#92) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#125) | 0.40 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.38 (#142) | 0.48 (#136) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#101) | 0.516 (#137) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 21.8% |
| FT Rate | 16.0% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 77.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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