Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
| Money | COLO -180 UVU +152 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVU +12 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | COLO -4.4 (-16.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -2.5 (-14.5) | 141.0 (+9.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -3.4 (-15.4) | 141.7 (+8.3) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -2.4 (-14.4) | 142.6 (+7.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -3.2 (-15.2) | 141.9 (+8.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 28-9 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-5 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 12-5 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 9.2 (#59) | 8.4 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#102) | 1.66 (#53) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#87) | 2.13 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#97) | 0.576 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | UVU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 39.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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