(16)
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi
Islanders
75
–
71
FINAL
Neutral
NCAA Tournament
(16)
Southeast Missouri State
Redhawks
Betting Lines
| Spread | AMCC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | AMCC -188 SEMO +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AMCC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMCC +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | AMCC -4.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMCC -2.9 (+1.1) | 157.8 (-11.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AMCC -3.2 (+0.8) | 156.2 (-10.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMCC -2.7 (+1.3) | 157.5 (-11.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMCC -2.5 (+1.5) | 157.3 (-11.3) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AMCC | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 77.6 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#180) | -4.7 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#173) | -0.67 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#181) | -1.01 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#146) | 0.496 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AMCC | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.5% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 30.4% |
Game Analysis
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