Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
Neville Arena · December 30, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread AUB -37.5 Away covered
O/U 152.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total AUB win
Actual AUB +29 145 Won
Massey AUB -39.8 (-10.8)
Massey Totals 157.1 (-12.1)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML AUB -31.2 (-2.2) 151.2 (-6.2) 91%
Efficiency Plus ML AUB -25.2 (+3.8) 152.4 (-7.4) 91%
Baseline Tuned ML AUB -25.1 (+3.9) 153.6 (-8.6) 91%
Baseline ML AUB -31.0 (-2.0) 153.2 (-8.2) 91%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AUB MONM
Overall 32-6 13-20
Conference 15-3 10-8
Home 13-2 8-2
Away 8-2 4-14
Neutral 11-2 1-4
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.0 70.3
Avg Pts Against 69.4 75.4
Massey 27.9 (#1) -7.6 (#295)
Bradley-Terry 4.51 (#3) -1.65 (#306)
W. Bradley-Terry 6.00 (#3) -2.07 (#299)
RPI 0.711 (#2) 0.408 (#327)
Shooting & Four Factors AUB MONM
FG% 51.4% 38.3%
3PT% 38.0% 35.2%
REB / G 39.2 34.3
OREB / G 11.5 12.3
AST / TO 2.15 0.88
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 59.6% 44.6%
TOV% 13.0% 18.1%
ORB% 35.6% 32.2%
FT Rate 21.3% 26.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.1% 54.1%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 17.9%
DRB% 73.0% 66.5%
Opp FT Rate 23.8% 30.1%

Game Analysis

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