Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -37.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +29 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -39.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -31.2 (-2.2) | 151.2 (-6.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -25.2 (+3.8) | 152.4 (-7.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -25.1 (+3.9) | 153.6 (-8.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -31.0 (-2.0) | 153.2 (-8.2) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-2 | 8-2 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.0 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 27.9 (#1) | -7.6 (#295) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.51 (#3) | -1.65 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.00 (#3) | -2.07 (#299) |
| RPI | 0.711 (#2) | 0.408 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | MONM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.4% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 2.15 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.6% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 54.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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