I just keep on rolling along with the grace of the Lord above. "Heartbreaker" - Led Zeppelin
Dean E. Smith Center · December 30, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UNC -28.5 Away covered
O/U 155.5 Over
Model Predictions
Spread Total UNC win
Actual UNC +16 178 Won
Massey UNC -26.9 (-10.9)
Massey Totals 156.8 (+21.2)
Bradley-Terry 100%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML UNC -22.8 (-6.8) 151.7 (+26.3) 90%
Efficiency Plus ML UNC -23.4 (-7.4) 154.9 (+23.1) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML UNC -22.9 (-6.9) 153.5 (+24.5) 90%
Baseline ML UNC -25.0 (-9.0) 152.2 (+25.8) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UNC CAM
Overall 23-14 15-17
Conference 13-7 10-8
Home 12-3 8-6
Away 6-6 7-10
Neutral 5-5 0-1
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L1 L5
Avg Pts For 80.7 68.9
Avg Pts Against 74.7 69.3
Massey 14.6 (#28) -8.0 (#300)
Bradley-Terry 2.43 (#37) -2.30 (#337)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.15 (#43) -2.54 (#322)
RPI 0.647 (#10) 0.371 (#350)
Shooting & Four Factors UNC CAM
FG% 46.8% 40.7%
3PT% 31.6% 30.7%
REB / G 38.8 30.2
OREB / G 10.4 7.6
AST / TO 1.22 0.95
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.8% 47.5%
TOV% 14.9% 17.7%
ORB% 28.7% 22.6%
FT Rate 29.6% 28.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 55.6%
Opp TOV% 16.3% 19.0%
DRB% 72.0% 74.6%
Opp FT Rate 21.1% 21.5%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.