Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +16 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -26.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -22.8 (-6.8) | 151.7 (+26.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -23.4 (-7.4) | 154.9 (+23.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -22.9 (-6.9) | 153.5 (+24.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -25.0 (-9.0) | 152.2 (+25.8) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 6-6 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 69.3 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#28) | -8.0 (#300) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#37) | -2.30 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#43) | -2.54 (#322) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#10) | 0.371 (#350) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | CAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 55.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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