Murray State
Racers
71
–
68
FINAL
Neutral
Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic
Loyola Chicago
Ramblers
Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | MUR +130 LUC -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +3 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -0.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -0.1 (+3.1) | 142.4 (-3.4) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -0.1 (+2.9) | 140.8 (-1.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -0.1 (+2.9) | 139.1 (-0.1) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -0.8 (+3.8) | 139.5 (-0.5) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 17-1 |
| Away | 5-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-6 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 69.4 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#140) | 0.8 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#210) | 0.66 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#165) | 0.96 (#113) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#188) | 0.503 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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