Sometimes we're not prepared for adversity. "Mercy, Mercy, Mercy" - The Cannonball Adderley Quartet
Murray State Racers
71 68
FINAL Neutral Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic
Loyola Chicago Ramblers
Stan Sheriff Center (Neutral) · December 25, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread LUC -2.5 Home covered
O/U 137.5 Over
Money MUR +130 / LUC -155
Model Predictions
Spread Total MUR win
Actual MUR +3 139 Won
Massey MUR -0.6 (+2.4)
Massey Totals 140.4 (-1.4)
Bradley-Terry 26%
Weighted B-T 28%
Baseline Plus ML LUC -0.1 (+3.1) 142.4 (-3.4) 54%
Baseline ML MUR -0.1 (+2.9) 140.8 (-1.8) 53%
Baseline Tuned ML MUR -0.1 (+2.9) 139.1 (-0.1) 51%
Efficiency Plus ML LUC -0.8 (+3.8) 139.5 (-0.5) 54%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MUR LUC
Overall 16-17 25-12
Conference 9-11 12-6
Home 8-5 17-1
Away 5-8 7-5
Neutral 3-4 1-6
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.6 72.7
Avg Pts Against 70.2 69.4
Massey 1.4 (#140) 0.8 (#145)
Bradley-Terry -0.41 (#210) 0.66 (#121)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.02 (#165) 0.96 (#113)
RPI 0.488 (#188) 0.503 (#168)
Shooting & Four Factors MUR LUC
FG% 44.1% 45.6%
3PT% 33.6% 32.6%
REB / G 34.2 37.7
OREB / G 9.1 11.5
AST / TO 1.04 1.46
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.5% 52.1%
TOV% 16.1% 16.5%
ORB% 26.1% 32.1%
FT Rate 30.5% 22.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.3% 48.2%
Opp TOV% 16.6% 19.5%
DRB% 72.6% 75.2%
Opp FT Rate 26.5% 23.1%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.