Charlotte
49ers
94
–
90
2OT
FINAL
Neutral
Hawaiian Airlines Diamond Head Classic
Murray State
Racers
Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | CLT +210 MUR -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CLT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CLT +4 | 184 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -6.8 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+48.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -3.3 (+7.3) | 137.4 (+46.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -3.0 (+7.0) | 135.7 (+48.3) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -3.2 (+7.2) | 135.8 (+48.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -2.9 (+6.9) | 134.0 (+50.0) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CLT | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-12 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#251) | 2.1 (#124) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#251) | 0.01 (#169) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.04 (#243) | 0.53 (#139) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#273) | 0.507 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CLT | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 36.5% | 29.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 66.1% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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