Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | HAW +320 NEB -425 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +14 | 124 | Lost |
| Massey | NEB -6.4 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-15.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -4.7 (-9.3) | 142.4 (-18.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -4.3 (-9.7) | 142.1 (-18.1) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -4.9 (-9.1) | 140.8 (-16.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -4.6 (-9.4) | 139.1 (-15.1) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 13-7 | 10-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#161) | 10.2 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#186) | 2.24 (#45) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#184) | 3.22 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#196) | 0.615 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | NEB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 31.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.2% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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