Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | HAW -290 CLT +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +17 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -6.4 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -5.1 (+11.9) | 139.6 (-0.6) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -4.8 (+12.2) | 141.9 (-2.9) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -5.2 (+11.8) | 139.8 (-0.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -4.6 (+12.4) | 138.3 (+0.7) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 13-7 | 8-8 |
| Away | 2-9 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 75.0 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#187) | -3.8 (#234) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#204) | -0.73 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#199) | -0.87 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#246) | 0.447 (#270) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | CLT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 37.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 15.1% |
| DRB% | 77.2% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.1% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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