Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 162.5 Under |
| Money | UNM -240 ORU +196 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -5.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -5.0 (+2.0) | 157.1 (-0.1) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -4.5 (+2.5) | 155.7 (+1.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -4.9 (+2.1) | 157.5 (-0.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -5.1 (+1.9) | 156.5 (+0.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 18-0 |
| Home | 15-5 | 16-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 11-4 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 81.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#47) | 8.8 (#56) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.95 (#41) | 1.84 (#46) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#45) | 2.24 (#53) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#52) | 0.594 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | ORU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 14.7% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 19.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 75.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.7% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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