Betting Lines
| Spread | COLU -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | COLU +100 UMES +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +7 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | COLU -0.6 (-7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -0.2 (-6.8) | 136.6 (+4.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLU -0.1 (-7.1) | 138.1 (+2.9) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLU -0.3 (-7.3) | 135.0 (+6.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLU -0.6 (-7.6) | 136.5 (+4.5) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-22 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 2-12 | 9-5 |
| Home | 6-9 | 10-3 |
| Away | 1-13 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -10.8 (#336) | -6.7 (#294) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.39 (#339) | -0.33 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.77 (#333) | -0.36 (#202) |
| RPI | 0.371 (#353) | 0.508 (#162) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLU | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.2% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 30.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 45.1% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 68.4% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 26.1% |
Game Analysis
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