Betting Lines
| Spread | TCU -25.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | TCU -4000 CARK +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TCU +46 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | TCU -21.9 (+24.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -23.5 (+22.5) | 152.0 (+8.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -22.4 (+23.6) | 152.7 (+7.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -19.6 (+26.4) | 150.6 (+9.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -22.6 (+23.4) | 151.3 (+8.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 13-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 82.4 |
| Massey | 8.1 (#65) | -9.0 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#37) | -1.11 (#284) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#11) | -1.69 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#137) | 0.438 (#287) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | CARK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.2% | 53.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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