Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -26.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Under |
| Money | UVA -4000 UALB +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +20 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -26.8 (-6.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (-20.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -22.1 (-2.1) | 131.8 (-19.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -22.2 (-2.2) | 127.0 (-15.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -21.2 (-1.2) | 134.0 (-22.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -24.4 (-4.4) | 133.3 (-21.3) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 3-13 |
| Home | 15-1 | 5-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#27) | -10.1 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#13) | -1.31 (#298) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.62 (#14) | -1.76 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.619 (#26) | 0.440 (#282) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 35.3% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 55.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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