Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -31.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +39 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -28.2 (+10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.7 (+30.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -27.6 (+11.4) | 156.0 (+25.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -26.7 (+12.3) | 156.8 (+24.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -24.5 (+14.5) | 152.5 (+28.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -27.0 (+12.0) | 154.3 (+26.7) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 2-12 |
| Home | 11-6 | 4-6 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 84.7 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#33) | -12.2 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#99) | -1.42 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#102) | -2.15 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#158) | 0.418 (#308) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | SCST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 32.1% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 64.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 30.8% |
Game Analysis
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