Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | ND -333 JAX +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +16 | 102 | Won |
| Massey | ND -2.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.3 (-26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -2.8 (+13.2) | 128.5 (-26.5) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -3.7 (+12.3) | 125.7 (-23.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -2.5 (+13.5) | 133.0 (-31.0) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -1.6 (+14.4) | 133.8 (-31.8) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-8 | 7-6 |
| Away | 0-10 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#175) | 1.6 (#143) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#200) | 1.69 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#167) | 2.19 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#190) | 0.580 (#55) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 20.4% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.8% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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