Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -28.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TEX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TEX +25 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -27.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -23.2 (+1.8) | 143.4 (+25.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -23.6 (+1.4) | 144.9 (+24.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -27.0 (-2.0) | 145.1 (+23.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -26.7 (-1.7) | 146.1 (+22.9) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TEX | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-9 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 5-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 7-12 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.0 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 16.6 (#6) | -5.6 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#21) | -0.98 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#15) | -1.66 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.615 (#29) | 0.432 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TEX | ETAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.4% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 26.4% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 26.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 14.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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