Betting Lines
| Spread | HAW -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | HAW -190 SMU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAW +1 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | HAW -10.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.9 (-15.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAW -9.0 (-8.0) | 136.4 (-21.4) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HAW -7.1 (-6.1) | 135.1 (-20.1) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAW -9.0 (-8.0) | 135.5 (-20.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAW -9.1 (-8.1) | 136.6 (-21.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAW | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 13-5 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-4 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.0 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 3.6 (#109) | -1.9 (#210) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#158) | -0.10 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#120) | 0.30 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.486 (#203) | 0.491 (#192) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAW | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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