Betting Lines
| Spread | IONA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | PEPP +275 IONA -275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IONA +10 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | IONA -6.4 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IONA -5.3 (-4.7) | 152.0 (-10.0) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IONA -8.1 (-1.9) | 152.0 (-10.0) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IONA -5.3 (-4.7) | 149.4 (-7.4) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IONA -5.0 (-5.0) | 149.8 (-7.8) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-22 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 2-14 | 17-3 |
| Home | 8-8 | 11-1 |
| Away | 0-12 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.9 | 76.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.8 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#106) | 10.1 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#182) | 1.06 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#150) | 1.51 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#184) | 0.578 (#57) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | IONA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.9% |
Game Analysis
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