Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | USU -1000 SMU +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -17.3 (-20.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -13.2 (-16.2) | 148.4 (+2.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -11.2 (-14.2) | 150.6 (+0.4) | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -14.3 (-17.3) | 150.8 (+0.2) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USU -14.0 (-17.0) | 148.7 (+2.3) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 7-4 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#14) | -3.5 (#242) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.72 (#17) | -0.86 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.89 (#9) | -0.49 (#212) |
| RPI | 0.660 (#5) | 0.455 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 42.3% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.58 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 77.7% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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