Betting Lines
| Spread | USI -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | IUIN +800 USI -1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IUIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +13 | 161 | Lost |
| Massey | USI -18.6 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -12.8 (-0.2) | 143.0 (+18.0) | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -14.2 (+1.2) | 140.0 (+21.0) | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -13.7 (+0.7) | 144.0 (+17.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USI -13.4 (+0.4) | 143.4 (+17.6) | 13% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IUIN | USI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 9-9 |
| Home | 4-9 | 10-4 |
| Away | 0-15 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.6 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -19.3 (#362) | -0.7 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -5.04 (#363) | 0.02 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -7.61 (#363) | -0.18 (#189) |
| RPI | 0.297 (#363) | 0.516 (#146) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IUIN | USI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 28.6 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.55 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 24.5% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 20.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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