Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | BAY -550 WSU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +6 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -5.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.5 (-24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -2.5 (+3.5) | 143.8 (-19.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -4.2 (+1.8) | 139.9 (-15.9) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -4.5 (+1.5) | 145.5 (-21.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -2.9 (+3.1) | 145.6 (-21.6) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | WSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 65.7 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#12) | 9.2 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#17) | -0.10 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.47 (#23) | 0.37 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.622 (#24) | 0.500 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | WSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.9% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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