Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | USC -1600 CSUF +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +14 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | USC -10.7 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (-32.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -8.2 (+5.8) | 144.1 (-30.1) | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -8.5 (+5.5) | 142.6 (-28.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -8.2 (+5.8) | 143.7 (-29.7) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -8.9 (+5.1) | 143.6 (-29.6) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 3.5 (#111) | -1.9 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#139) | 0.02 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.42 (#150) | -0.31 (#205) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#154) | 0.501 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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