Betting Lines
| Spread | SF -19.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SF -2500 MRMK +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SF +18 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | SF -21.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SF -18.1 (-0.1) | 138.3 (-18.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SF -19.5 (-1.5) | 135.1 (-15.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SF -15.4 (+2.6) | 137.1 (-17.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SF -17.4 (+0.6) | 136.7 (-16.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SF | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 7-9 | 12-4 |
| Home | 11-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | W11 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 61.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 64.0 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#130) | -13.9 (#354) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#71) | -3.27 (#352) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#74) | -4.58 (#350) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#108) | 0.386 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SF | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 34.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 23.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 41.1% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 16.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 25.7% |
| DRB% | 79.2% | 59.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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