Betting Lines
| Spread | CAL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | CAL -150 EWU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EWU +2 | 98 | Lost |
| Massey | CAL -3.9 (-5.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (-28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CAL -0.6 (-2.6) | 129.0 (-31.0) | 44% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CAL -1.3 (-3.3) | 125.6 (-27.6) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CAL -0.8 (-2.8) | 129.6 (-31.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CAL -0.8 (-2.8) | 130.7 (-32.7) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 16-2 |
| Home | 3-14 | 11-1 |
| Away | 0-12 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L16 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.3 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -6.6 (#296) | -5.1 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.75 (#357) | -1.60 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.81 (#352) | -2.46 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.415 (#301) | 0.406 (#313) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | EWU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.64 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 49.1% |
| TOV% | 22.2% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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