Betting Lines
| Spread | SCU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | SCU -275 NMSU +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SCU +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | SCU -4.5 (-3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.5 (-25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SCU -5.6 (-4.6) | 151.9 (-20.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SCU -4.6 (-3.6) | 150.0 (-19.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SCU -5.4 (-4.4) | 152.7 (-21.7) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SCU -4.4 (-3.4) | 152.2 (-21.2) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SCU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 9-15 |
| Conference | 11-5 | 2-16 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-3 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.8 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#117) | 3.9 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#59) | 0.56 (#133) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.37 (#56) | 0.96 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#33) | 0.545 (#116) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SCU | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 48.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.2% | 43.8% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 56.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.0% | 33.0% |
Game Analysis
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