Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -19.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Over |
| Money | PROV -3500 MAN +1350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +40 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -15.6 (+24.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -12.4 (+27.6) | 139.7 (+18.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -16.8 (+23.2) | 140.0 (+18.0) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -12.1 (+27.9) | 141.5 (+16.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -12.7 (+27.3) | 141.6 (+16.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-12 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#132) | -8.0 (#307) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#136) | -1.87 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#124) | -2.97 (#325) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#176) | 0.336 (#357) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 29.8% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.9% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 23.6% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 61.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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