Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -6000 NICH +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +7 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -24.8 (-17.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+12.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -22.3 (-15.3) | 139.2 (+9.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -21.4 (-14.4) | 139.0 (+10.0) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -20.4 (-13.4) | 139.2 (+9.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -22.1 (-15.1) | 139.7 (+9.3) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 75.6 |
| Massey | 9.1 (#47) | -10.4 (#333) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#97) | -0.76 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#100) | -1.30 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#77) | 0.448 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 26.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.2% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.7% | 24.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 54.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.6% | 36.3% |
Game Analysis
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