Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -15.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -1600 COR +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +2 | 212 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -11.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.6 (+60.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -11.3 (-9.3) | 146.7 (+65.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -11.6 (-9.6) | 155.2 (+56.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -10.4 (-8.4) | 148.2 (+63.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -10.6 (-8.6) | 149.4 (+62.6) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | COR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 17-11 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 80.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#61) | 1.5 (#150) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.56 (#21) | 1.10 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.49 (#21) | 1.76 (#90) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#57) | 0.486 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | COR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.7% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 14.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 11.9% |
Game Analysis
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