Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -14.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Over |
| Money | ND -1400 BU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | ND -9.4 (-3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.4 (+22.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -8.2 (-2.2) | 137.7 (+18.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -10.2 (-4.2) | 132.8 (+23.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -7.5 (-1.5) | 136.1 (+19.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ND -7.8 (-1.8) | 135.7 (+20.3) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-8 | 9-4 |
| Away | 0-10 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#133) | -1.9 (#214) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#134) | -0.48 (#226) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.94 (#128) | -0.79 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#78) | 0.461 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.4% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.3% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 78.9% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.4% | 30.0% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.