Betting Lines
| Spread | SBU -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | SBU -275 CLE +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SBU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SBU +19 | 103 | Won |
| Massey | SBU -3.9 (+15.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.5 (-25.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SBU -2.9 (+16.1) | 134.3 (-31.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SBU -4.6 (+14.4) | 134.8 (-31.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SBU -3.5 (+15.5) | 134.9 (-31.9) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SBU -2.8 (+16.2) | 135.8 (-32.8) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SBU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.8 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#173) | 1.9 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#172) | 0.53 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#159) | 0.24 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#201) | 0.468 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SBU | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.20 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 35.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.5% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 62.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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