Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.0 Over |
| Money | VCU -430 JAX +328 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JAX +11 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | VCU -3.7 (-14.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 115.9 (+19.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -2.8 (-13.8) | 126.6 (+8.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -4.7 (-15.7) | 130.7 (+4.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -3.8 (-14.8) | 126.4 (+8.6) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -3.2 (-14.2) | 126.7 (+8.3) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-3 | 7-6 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 61.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 64.7 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#124) | 4.2 (#96) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.02 (#101) | 1.13 (#91) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#95) | 1.84 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#74) | 0.616 (#35) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.5% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 23.9% | 25.4% |
| ORB% | 27.0% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 37.9% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.8% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 10.3% |
Game Analysis
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