Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -23.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -10000 HOF +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +19 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -19.5 (-0.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -18.9 (+0.1) | 147.9 (+3.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -15.6 (+3.4) | 148.8 (+2.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -17.3 (+1.7) | 149.8 (+1.2) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -17.9 (+1.1) | 147.1 (+3.9) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-2 |
| Away | 7-3 | 11-5 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 66.9 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#4) | 3.7 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.23 (#3) | 1.82 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.35 (#2) | 2.21 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.714 (#1) | 0.644 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | HOF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 42.4 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 6.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 19.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.4% | 14.7% |
Game Analysis
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