Betting Lines
| Spread | BTLR -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | BTLR -275 YALE +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BTLR +10 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | BTLR -2.4 (+7.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BTLR -2.5 (+7.5) | 133.8 (-1.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BTLR -2.0 (+8.0) | 131.3 (+0.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BTLR -2.6 (+7.4) | 133.6 (-1.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BTLR -2.5 (+7.5) | 134.7 (-2.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 21-9 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-6 | 10-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 64.3 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#56) | 11.2 (#35) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#104) | 1.47 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.31 (#108) | 2.26 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#79) | 0.521 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | YALE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.7% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.40 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 15.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 42.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 78.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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