Betting Lines
| Spread | STAN -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | STAN -1700 CSUF +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +27 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | STAN -16.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.4 (-21.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STAN -15.7 (+11.3) | 146.6 (-13.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STAN -11.9 (+15.1) | 148.2 (-15.2) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STAN | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 1-19 |
| Home | 17-3 | 4-11 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-15 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.5 | 62.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 78.7 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#115) | 2.6 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#104) | -0.31 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#75) | -0.38 (#176) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STAN | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 41.2% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 25.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.82 | 0.65 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 23.2% |
| ORB% | 42.9% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 48.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 55.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 29.0% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.2% | 39.0% |
Game Analysis
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