Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | USC -450 MTST +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +26 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | USC -3.7 (+22.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -5.2 (+20.8) | 139.7 (+12.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -4.0 (+22.0) | 139.9 (+12.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -3.8 (+22.2) | 140.1 (+11.9) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -6.3 (+19.7) | 138.9 (+13.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-7 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 2.6 (#123) | 3.2 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#126) | -0.29 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#103) | 0.11 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#122) | 0.483 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 30.1 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 24.6% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 28.0% |
Game Analysis
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