Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | HALL +120 INST -154 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HALL +2 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | INST -2.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | INST -1.9 (+3.9) | 150.9 (+5.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -1.7 (+3.7) | 152.6 (+3.4) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | INST -1.6 (+3.6) | 153.1 (+2.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | INST -1.0 (+3.0) | 151.5 (+4.5) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HALL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 17-3 |
| Home | 17-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 5-6 | 9-4 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 7-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#55) | 12.9 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.79 (#50) | 2.38 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#51) | 2.72 (#25) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#76) | 0.591 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HALL | INST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 50.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 59.9% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 23.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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