Betting Lines
| Spread | INST -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | INST -200 UTAH +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | INST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | INST +10 | 190 | Won |
| Massey | UTAH -0.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.2 (+29.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTAH -0.2 (+10.2) | 158.0 (+32.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | INST -0.3 (+9.7) | 158.5 (+31.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTAH -0.0 (+10.0) | 159.8 (+30.2) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTAH -0.9 (+10.9) | 158.8 (+31.2) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | INST | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 22-15 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 17-2 |
| Away | 9-4 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 84.7 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 12.6 (#35) | 12.8 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.30 (#22) | 1.60 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#29) | 1.95 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#33) | 0.562 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | INST | UTAH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.3% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 23.5% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.0% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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