Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | SEA -133 HPU +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SEA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEA +10 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -0.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEA -0.6 (+9.4) | 146.2 (-2.2) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -0.8 (+9.2) | 146.5 (-2.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -0.3 (+9.7) | 149.6 (-5.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -0.0 (+10.0) | 148.3 (-4.3) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SEA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-3 |
| Home | 14-4 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.0 | 82.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 3.8 (#111) | 3.9 (#110) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#139) | 0.86 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#125) | 1.21 (#101) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#143) | 0.548 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SEA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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