Betting Lines
| Spread | SEA -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR +225 SEA -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SEA +17 | 133 | Lost |
| Massey | SEA -4.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 33% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SEA -3.4 (-13.6) | 139.4 (-6.4) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SEA -3.5 (-13.5) | 139.5 (-6.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SEA -3.3 (-13.7) | 140.1 (-7.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SEA -3.2 (-13.8) | 140.4 (-7.4) | 41% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 11-9 |
| Home | 10-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 10-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | W4 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 73.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -0.2 (#167) | 3.8 (#111) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#162) | 0.32 (#139) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#172) | 0.68 (#125) |
| RPI | 0.524 (#125) | 0.512 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.5% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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