Everybody's in despair, every girl and boy. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Chicago State Cougars
74 77
FINAL Neutral CBI
Fairfield Stags
Ocean Center (Neutral) · March 25, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread FAIR -4.5 Home covered
O/U 144.5 Over
Money CHST +155 / FAIR -200
Model Predictions
Spread Total CHST win
Actual FAIR +3 151 Lost
Massey FAIR -7.3 (+4.3)
Massey Totals 139.0 (+12.0)
Bradley-Terry 27%
Weighted B-T 17%
Efficiency Plus ML FAIR -6.0 (+3.0) 137.6 (+13.4) 24%
Baseline Tuned ML FAIR -6.8 (+3.8) 138.3 (+12.7) 24%
Baseline ML FAIR -6.1 (+3.1) 139.4 (+11.6) 23%
Baseline Plus ML FAIR -7.1 (+4.1) 137.4 (+13.6) 22%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings CHST FAIR
Overall 13-19 24-13
Conference 0-0 14-6
Home 6-5 10-4
Away 5-12 10-6
Neutral 2-2 4-3
Last 5 2-3 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.2 75.1
Avg Pts Against 71.6 71.7
Massey -7.3 (#294) -0.0 (#165)
Bradley-Terry -0.94 (#275) 0.04 (#167)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.62 (#301) -0.06 (#174)
RPI 0.457 (#270) 0.525 (#123)
Shooting & Four Factors CHST FAIR
FG% 40.8% 44.3%
3PT% 30.1% 36.5%
REB / G 31.1 33.1
OREB / G 11.1 9.8
AST / TO 0.73 1.24
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.0% 51.9%
TOV% 20.1% 15.4%
ORB% 31.8% 28.1%
FT Rate 27.1% 22.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.2% 52.5%
Opp TOV% 21.4% 20.4%
DRB% 64.4% 69.6%
Opp FT Rate 24.8% 18.0%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.