Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | CHST +155 FAIR -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +3 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | FAIR -7.3 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (+12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -6.0 (+3.0) | 137.6 (+13.4) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -6.8 (+3.8) | 138.3 (+12.7) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -6.1 (+3.1) | 139.4 (+11.6) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -7.1 (+4.1) | 137.4 (+13.6) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 0-0 | 14-6 |
| Home | 6-5 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-12 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#294) | -0.0 (#165) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.94 (#275) | 0.04 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#301) | -0.06 (#174) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#270) | 0.525 (#123) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | FAIR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 31.1 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.0% | 51.9% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 31.8% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.8% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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