Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | MONT +130 ARST -167 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MONT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +13 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -0.4 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (-19.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -0.9 (-12.1) | 148.3 (-13.3) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -0.6 (-12.4) | 151.2 (-16.2) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -0.1 (-12.9) | 151.7 (-16.7) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -0.5 (-12.5) | 152.7 (-17.7) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MONT | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-3 | 10-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 0.7 (#158) | 1.1 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#130) | 0.20 (#148) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#148) | 0.36 (#144) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#97) | 0.513 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MONT | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.42 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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