Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | PROV -200 BC +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +5 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | PROV -5.8 (-10.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (-24.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -5.9 (-10.9) | 142.0 (-23.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -3.8 (-8.8) | 138.8 (-19.8) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -5.5 (-10.5) | 138.5 (-19.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -4.0 (-9.0) | 141.0 (-22.0) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-12 |
| Home | 14-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 10.1 (#53) | 7.4 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#56) | 1.26 (#83) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.09 (#54) | 1.67 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#90) | 0.542 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.34 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.1% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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