Betting Lines
| Spread | TAR -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | TAR -700 TXSO +450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TAR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TAR +11 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TAR -11.3 (-0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.9 (+14.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TAR -10.8 (+0.2) | 144.1 (+8.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TAR -10.4 (+0.6) | 142.1 (+10.9) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TAR -10.4 (+0.6) | 144.5 (+8.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TAR -10.0 (+1.0) | 145.8 (+7.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TAR | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 12-6 |
| Home | 13-4 | 7-4 |
| Away | 10-5 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#142) | -6.6 (#280) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#93) | -0.74 (#254) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.17 (#102) | -1.04 (#265) |
| RPI | 0.550 (#76) | 0.494 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TAR | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.1% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 28.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.