Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
| Money | HOW -166 WAG +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAG +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | HOW -1.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (+7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -1.4 (-4.4) | 128.8 (+10.2) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -1.4 (-4.4) | 129.1 (+9.9) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -1.1 (-4.1) | 129.6 (+9.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -1.9 (-4.9) | 130.9 (+8.1) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 7-9 |
| Home | 9-4 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-9 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 64.1 |
| Massey | -6.0 (#273) | -7.2 (#291) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#269) | -1.19 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#263) | -1.67 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#233) | 0.453 (#274) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 38.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.7% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.8% | 17.0% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.4% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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