Betting Lines
| Spread | USC -22.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | USC -6000 IDST +1800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +6 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | USC -16.9 (-10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -14.9 (-8.9) | 128.6 (+15.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -10.9 (-4.9) | 134.6 (+9.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-18 | 15-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-7 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 0-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#97) | 3.6 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#113) | -0.31 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.44 (#69) | -0.36 (#161) |
| RPI | — | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.0% | 25.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 14.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 46.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 16.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.33 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 28.4% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 7.8% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 33.3% | 42.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 21.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 78.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 14.5% |
Game Analysis
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