Betting Lines
| Spread | BUT -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | BUT -1200 NDSU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | BUT -11.6 (-14.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUT -13.4 (-16.4) | 142.2 (-3.2) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUT -12.6 (-15.6) | 146.1 (-7.1) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUT -12.0 (-15.0) | 143.7 (-4.7) | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUT -13.6 (-16.6) | 145.6 (-6.6) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUT | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 10-6 |
| Home | 9-8 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.7 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 76.0 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#66) | 1.8 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#52) | 0.21 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.53 (#38) | 0.25 (#157) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#50) | 0.481 (#213) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUT | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 24.4% |
| FT Rate | 38.8% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.6% | 9.4% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 17.3% |
Game Analysis
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